The are looking to signal a changing of the guard when Buffalo heads to Foxborough to take on the on Saturday. The Bills can tie for the top spot in the AFC playoff picture and would be hoping for a Miami win in New England the following week, but breaking a six-game losing skid against the Patriots is motivation enough. Buffalo is 10-4 on the strength of its defense, and the unit would love to make Patriots quarterback Tom Brady show some of his age. The Bills also have gotten steady play from quarterback Josh Allen and rookie running back Devin Singletary. Kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium.New England is a 6.5-point favorite in the latest Patriots vs. Bills odds, while the over-under is 37.5 after dropping as low as 36.5. Before making any Bills vs. Patriots picks of your own, .The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 16 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 33-22 run that dates back to last season. It's also on an incredible 95-65 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch the past three years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players last season. Anyone who has followed it is way up.Now, it has broken down . We can tell you it's leaning under and it's also generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in more than 50 percent of simulations. You can . Now, here are the betting lines and trends for Bills vs. Patriots: Patriots vs. Bills spread: New England -6.5 Patriots vs. Bills over-under: 37.5Patriots vs. Bills money line: New England -281, Buffalo +225 NE: QB is 31-3 against BuffaloBUF: RB Joel Embiid Jersey has rushed for at least 75 yards in five of the last seven games.The model knows the Patriots are 10-6 against the spread in division games since 2017 and Brady continues to win despite a lack of weapons. was brought in to help, and the veteran receiver has 20 catches for 148 yards in six games since coming over from Atlanta. Brady also relies heavily on running back , who has caught 65 pa ses for 588 yards and four touchdowns.New England is 16-9 against the spread as a home favorite since 2017 and the defense could make life rough for Buffalo's . The quarterback has been sacked 34 times this season, and New England already has 41 QB takedowns already. Linebackers (6.5 sacks) and (six) lead the way in pre suring the quarterback, and Collins also has three of the unit's 25 interceptions. has six picks, and the cornerback also has broken up 18 pa ses.New England has the pedigree, but that doesn't mean it will cover the Patriots vs. Bills spread on Saturday.The Bills have covered the spread in three of four division games this season and Singletary has made a major difference since becoming the starter in Week 9. The third-rounder has 729 rushing yards and 28 catches for another 192 yards. Allen has thrown 18 touchdown pa ses and nine interceptions. Wide receiver is averaging 14.2 yards on 71 receptions, while is a reliable slot man, catching 60 balls for 670 yards.The defense has been the calling card for Buffalo, which is 9-4-1 against the spread this season. The secondary is the strength of the unit, which allows 190.5 pa sing yards per game (third in the NFL). Cornerback , with six interceptions and 17 pa ses defended, and safety , who has two interceptions and three fumble recoveries, are difference-makers. Linebacker is the soul of the defense, posting 105 tackles and 1.5 sacks.So who wins Bills vs. Patriots? And which side of the spread can you bank on in more than 50 percent of simulations? . Trey Burke Jersey